While everyone else focuses on the headlines, here are seven below-the-hood details you should know about new home sales.
Sales of newly built single-family homes in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000, a 0.2 percent increase from August and a 17.0 percent increase from Sept. 2013, according to the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau; in addition, new home sales for the third quarter were up 17.0 percent.
That was just the tip of the iceberg, though, when it comes to the Census Bureau’s report, and we’ve isolated seven of the most telling details on what’s truly going on in new construction sales right now:
1. Ignore Monthly Changes – New home sales data is notoriously volatile (more on that in a moment), so it’s much more educational to look at sales trends over a longer period of time…though the results are not always encouraging. Case in point, when looking at 2014’s new home sales year to date, they’re only up 1.7 percent from 2013.
2. Ignore Yearly/Quarterly Changes – Even those 17 percent year-over-year/quarterly increases are not quite as positive as they seem. Remember that in the summer of 2013, mortgage rates increased quite dramatically, and as a result, home sales fell across the board in July, August and September; so though 2014’s overall sales are lackluster, they seem much stronger in the third quarter when compared with 2013’s lousy numbers.
3. Six-Year High – It was not all doom and gloom in September, though; at its current rate, new home sales are now at their highest mark since 2008.
4. An Out-of-Whack Market – Even with new home sales at a six-year high, the overall composition of the housing market is still way out of whack. Case in point: in a normal housing market, there is one new home sale for every six existing-home sales (a 1:6 ratio); currently, though, the ratio is 1:11, given that new home sales remain relatively low and distressed home sales relatively high. Click here for an excellent graph demonstrating the divide.
5. Signs of Normalcy – Even with that crazy new-existing ratio, there are still signs of a normalizing market. So far in 2014, 68 percent of new home sales were for pre-completion units; though lower than 2004’s peak of 77 percent, that’s still up from the post-bubble low of 49 percent in 2008.
6. A Slow Year of Sales – On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales so far in 2014 are up just 2.4 percent from the same period in 2013, and it’s looking less and less likely that 2014’s numbers will improve beyond that; current projections are for an increase of around 3 percent.
7. None of This Even Matters – Is all of our previous analysis bunk? Not exactly, but remember our earlier statement that new home sales is a notoriously volatile statistic? Consider this: August’s new home sales stats were revised down from their initial 504,000 to 466,000, a whopping difference of 38,000; it’s all but guaranteed that September’s numbers will see similar revisions next month, when October’s numbers are released into the wild.
I just want to tell you that I am just very new to blogging and site-building and actually liked your blog. Most likely I’m likely to bookmark your blog . You definitely have perfect article content. Thank you for revealing your web page.
I haven¡¦t checked in here for some time since I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are good quality so I guess I¡¦ll add you back to my daily bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂
I think the admin of this site is truly working hard in favor of his site, as here every stuff is quality based information.|
I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an nervousness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this increase.
Whats Happening i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I have discovered It positively helpful and it has helped me out loads. I’m hoping to give a contribution & assist different customers like its aided me. Good job.
You actually make it seem so easy along with your presentation however I to find this matter to be actually something that I think I’d by no means understand. It seems too complex and extremely extensive for me. I am having a look ahead in your next publish, I will try to get the dangle of it!
Good write-up, I¡¦m normal visitor of one¡¦s web site, maintain up the excellent operate, and It’s going to be a regular visitor for a lengthy time.
whoah this weblog is wonderful i like studying your posts. Stay up the good work! You already know, a lot of individuals are searching around for this information, you can aid them greatly.
I¡¦ve been exploring for a bit for any high quality articles or blog posts in this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this site. Studying this info So i am happy to express that I have an incredibly excellent uncanny feeling I came upon just what I needed. I so much definitely will make certain to don¡¦t put out of your mind this site and give it a glance regularly.
Hello, you used to write great, but the last several posts have been kinda boring¡K I miss your super writings. Past few posts are just a little out of track! come on!
You completed certain fine points there. I did a search on the subject matter and found a good number of folks will have the same opinion with your blog.
I intended to draft you a very small note to finally say thanks a lot again just for the beautiful knowledge you have provided on this page. It is strangely open-handed of people like you in giving openly what exactly a lot of folks might have supplied as an e book to earn some money for their own end, precisely now that you might well have done it in case you wanted. The solutions likewise worked to provide a easy way to fully grasp other people have a similar fervor similar to my own to figure out lots more with regards to this problem. I am certain there are millions of more pleasant sessions in the future for those who find out your website.
Thanks a lot for sharing this with all people you really recognise what you’re talking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly additionally seek advice from my web site =). We can have a hyperlink alternate contract between us!
Thanks for another fantastic article. The place else could anybody get that kind of information in such an ideal means of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the search for such information.
I was just searching for this info for some time. After six hours of continuous Googleing, finally I got it in your web site. I wonder what’s the lack of Google strategy that don’t rank this type of informative sites in top of the list. Normally the top web sites are full of garbage.
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I get actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I will be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently fast.
Awsome site! I am loving it!! Will come back again. I am bookmarking your feeds also
Awsome info and right to the point. I don’t know if this is in fact the best place to ask but do you people have any thoughts on where to hire some professional writers? Thanks 🙂
Magnificent web site. Lots of helpful info here. I am sending it to a few friends ans additionally sharing in delicious. And of course, thanks for your sweat!
Undeniably believe that which you stated. Your favorite reason seemed to be on the web the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people consider worries that they plainly do not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
I really wanted to make a message in order to express gratitude to you for all the lovely solutions you are giving out at this website. My time-consuming internet lookup has now been rewarded with reliable ideas to share with my best friends. I ‘d declare that we visitors are undeniably fortunate to dwell in a fabulous site with many awesome people with useful tips and hints. I feel really happy to have encountered your entire site and look forward to some more thrilling moments reading here. Thanks a lot once more for everything.
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog
Great write-up, I’m regular visitor of one’s blog, maintain up the excellent operate, and It is going to be a regular visitor for a lengthy time.
I was just looking for this info for some time. After 6 hours of continuous Googleing, finally I got it in your website. I wonder what is the lack of Google strategy that do not rank this type of informative sites in top of the list. Generally the top sites are full of garbage.
hey there and thank you for your info – I have definitely picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise several technical points using this website, since I experienced to reload the website lots of times previous to I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could damage your high-quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I am adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for a lot more of your respective fascinating content. Make sure you update this again very soon..
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to assert that I get actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I’ll be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently fast.
Keep working ,splendid job!
Thank you for sharing superb informations. Your website is so cool. I am impressed by the details that you¡¦ve on this blog. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found simply the info I already searched everywhere and just could not come across. What a great web-site.
excellent post, very informative. I wonder why the other experts of this sector don’t understand this. You should proceed your writing. I am sure, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!
Valuable information. Fortunate me I discovered your site by chance, and I’m surprised why this twist of fate didn’t happened earlier! I bookmarked it.
You really make it seem so easy along with your presentation however I find this topic to be actually something which I think I would by no means understand. It seems too complicated and extremely large for me. I’m looking forward on your subsequent post, I¡¦ll attempt to get the grasp of it!
Well I sincerely liked reading it. This tip provided by you is very effective for correct planning.
Great blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What web host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol
Hello.This article was really interesting, particularly since I was searching for thoughts on this issue last Thursday.
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog
I truly appreciate this post. I have been looking everywhere for this! Thank goodness I found it on Bing. You have made my day! Thank you again
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog
whoah this blog is great i love reading your posts. Keep up the great paintings! You already know, lots of individuals are looking around for this information, you could help them greatly.
that’s good, thanks for sharing,.. I think this is great blog