Loans and Appraisals
Q: What factors will affect loans next year, and why?
Amy Tierce, Wintrust Mortgage: The biggest negative impacting the mortgage environment is – let me rephrase slightly. You hear a lot about mortgage guidelines, but the truth of the matter is as long as lenders are uncertain about loans being pushed back for repurchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or the governmental agencies, they’re going to remain overly conservative because the biggest fear in the mortgage lending world is having to buy back a loan because you had avenue instead of street down. It can become that persnickety from the post closing review process and I think lenders are trying to message back to the agencies we want to do perfect loans.
We want to do really high quality loans. We want to follow all of your rules and regs, but we are not prepared to ease up on things unless you ease up on nonmaterial errors. Errors that do not impact the salability of the loan, the quality of the loan or the ability of the borrower to repay. Those are the things that have the mortgage industry so in the hot seat is we’re okay if we make a material mistake that really impacts the loan, but a spelling error or a typo should not, but that can be how challenging these loan buybacks are.
Christine Lindemer: A number of factors, including federal interest rates and consumer confidence level. In addition, the mortgage lenders are relaxing standards and terms for various loan categories. Lower credit scores will be acceptable and also higher debt levels will be allowed in some cases. Conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will increase next year; for example, in Boston the limits are changing from $470,350 to $517,500.
Q: What other lending changes should agents expect next year?
Keith Polaski: August 1 we have the new KRID for Keeler Raspberry Integrated Disclosure, we have the new integrated disclosure rule that’s happing Aug. 1 2015. It’s going to be a combining of the GFE and the Truth in Lending consumer doc. I think the most important change for the Realtor community is the same day closings as a loan is approved at 2.5 or more. There’s going to be a federal requirement of a three day waiting period after a loan is approved and the closing disclosure has been delivered to the consumer. There’s a three day waiting period, so that will impact sort of that scramble at month end. That sort of environment will go away.
That’s probably the biggest change. Those QRM rules finally got published, and to the delight of the mortgage industry they were very favorable to the Barney Franks of the world or obviously the author and sponsor of the Dodd-Frank act and to many other consumer advocates. They were sort of not very happy with the rules that were propagated because they really left the risk retention piece into a very small bucket of loans. So QRM now equals QM and QM is the ability to repay rule which we’ve been dealing with since January 10 of this year. That was to the delight of the mortgage banking community. It was favorable on our end that the rules were written that way. I would say because loan volumes are down, we’ll continue to see a rebalancing of the credit pendulum. I think after the crisis, the pendulum swung way too far whether that be from lenders just really not wanting to lend or the regulations.
A lot of consumers were shut out of access to credit that could probably qualify for credit and I think there is a rebalancing of that credit pendulum, partially due to the recovering economy, recovering home values and those types of things, but also because of lower volumes. If you want to keep your market share, maybe you have to open up your credit box. You can still do the $100 million a year, whatever the value of the dollar volume is you’re looking to do. We will get some broadening of the credit criteria in 2015, and the administration is really pushing for that. So the mortgage bankers association, our association lobbying groups are just trying to say “listen, we’re willing to lend there, but if we lend there you can’t blame us. You want to encourage us to lend there and we need to serve all these underserved communities, but when we do lend there and it hits the fan, you then blame us.”
Q: What do you see happening with interest rates in 2015? Will low interest rates continue to drive the market, even if they increase by a small percentage next year?
Keith Polaski: I actually don’t believe there will be an increase next year. I think we’re flat to actually potentially going down. One, quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and the purchase of mortgage backed securities has ended. It ended without a bang. Everyone was wary that we’d have a massive run-up in rates and stopping their purchases, but because nationwide loan volume shrank by about 35 percent this year, removing the fed left enough liquidity in the market because there wasn’t that much product to be sold. So the fed got a pretty good free pass in weakness because they were able to exit not being the biggest buyer gives them less volume to buy.
There are plenty of active buyers, a lot of those being pension funds, sovereign wealth, all that type of stuff. The fed was pretty much able to get itself out of its asset purchasing program because of the reduction in volume. The fed is gone, the fed is no longer a player in the marketplace and rates haven’t gone anywhere. I think the big thing to think about is where all the sovereign debt trades. Banks have a common bond trades at about 0.8 percent to our ten year trading right now at 2.23. Italian ten year debt – and it’s a terrible economy over there – Italian 10 year debt just went below U.S. treasury debt. France’s debt is below ours. So it’s almost impossible for the U.S. Treasury rates to be moved away from these other global bond prices on the sovereign debt.
It would be very very hard because I think what would happen is if the risk premium got so great, why would you invest in Germany at 1 percent versus invest in U.S. which is trading at 2 percent, if all the sudden the U.S. debt went to 3 and the German debt didn’t move, you would have flight. The U.S. debt then would drive it down. You’d have more buyers, our interest rates would come back. So you get these really really low rates and nothing – the rates are so low you’ve got central bank intervention, all that stuff – but no, something normalizes in the sovereign debt market it’ll be very hard for the U.S. Treasuries to move and then mortgage backed securities, while they’re not tying mathematically to U.S. Treasuries – they’re a similar instrument, so they act and behave a lot like U.S. Treasuries.
Most people can’t or don’t know where to follow mortgage backed securities pricing, but if you look at the 10 year as to the direction of what’s going to be happening to mortgages, but they don’t trade in an arithmetic relationship, but at least there are similarities. In my professional opinion, I believe we’re in a flat rate environment to a trending down environment in 2015, and that’s caveated with no traumatic world events.
Paul Campano: I see rates staying pretty level. Maybe it will be up to 4 percent by the end of the year. I don’t think that starts to affect anything. When we get back into 5 and 6 percent, which is still a really good rate, that starts to cut into the pool of buyers. I think that the terms that mortgages are given out at – I see a slow easing of some of the guidelines. I think the last big housing collapse, some of it was because of deficiencies in the system, but I think things would have been a little steadier with some of the guidelines, some of the documentation and those sorts of things. I believe it will become a little easier, as it should be, without being too easy as it was six years ago. I think those are the factors in lending, the rates and the terms that are available.
Q: Will appraisals give home sellers issues in 2015?
Amy Tierce: In our market over the last three years we’ve had strong spring upticks. I guess the problem for us is in Massachusetts we have millions of strong communities. In other states they’re not chopped up as strongly as we are. So one city or town – two miles away there’s another city or town and therefore a different community. You can’t use that as a comp. The appraisal issue has to do with the purchase market heating up faster than the comps can follow them. That’s why it’s so frustrating to buyers and for agents. They list a house. A hundred people look at it the first weekend. Twenty people make offers on it and the appraisal – all of their offers are in the same price range and then the appraisal comes in 50 grand low. Well, that’s because there were only two houses sold year to date in that town and they both were significantly less than our subject and until the market catches up to them we don’t have any comparables.
Because for the last three years we’ve had – I wouldn’t call it a boom and bust cycle, but kind of a rising tide in the spring and then an ebbing out in the fall. We have seen people buy in the spring market who have gone to refinance in the fall market and their value has theoretically dropped. As long as there’s these kind of peaks and valleys in the purchase market, we’re not seeing any actual straight line consistent price improvement. Appraisers will never adjust for an appreciating market.
Q: New mortgage rules promise lower down payment options and a more clear understanding of put-backs. Do you think these changes will be enough to encourage any significant amount of new origination, why or why not?
Keith Polaski: We just had some new indemnification requirements published last week. While it is a step in the right direction for the lending community that the agencies are finally willing to provide relief from what we would consider immaterial stuff, the regulations still had a lot of maintenance to them. They still are not as clear a picture as the industry would like. Clarity would be this: if the homeowner made the payments on time for two years, it is irrelevant what happened in 25 and you’re never on the hook. We’re getting closer, and the more steps that he FHFA and the GSE take to give the industry clarity, even though it’s not where we want, I think there will be business decisions made from a risk standpoint saying we can manage this risk. You should see an improvement of the credit pendulum getting to a more normal place.
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