Featuring the perspectives of:
Shant Banosian
President, Rate
Tim Tuz
Senior Vice President of Capital Markets, Wintrust Mortgage
What do you expect to see in the mortgage rate environment in 2026, and how might policy or Fed decisions shape consumer borrowing power?
Shant Banosian: Heading into 2026, I expect mortgage rates to stabilize in the high-5% to low-6% range as the Fed transitions from a restrictive stance to a more neutral one. Inflation has cooled, but the job market is flashing warning signings, so the Fed will remain cautious and data dependent, wanting to ensure long-term stability before aggressively cutting rates.
The real opportunity lies in spread compression, which could improve borrowing costs even if the Fed moves slowly. For consumers, that means a noticeable increase in buying power, and for lenders, an opening to re-engage both new and existing clients. The key is being ready to move fast when economic data shifts.
Tim Tuz: I believe that the rates will continue to drift lower, however it will continue to be at a very slow pace. I would expect the rates at the end of 2026 to be around mid to high 5s. The larger wildcard would be what FHFA and Treasury and Federal Reserve can come up with reforms to Fed’s MBS Purchase program in order to lower rates, or adjusting loan level price adjusters or guarantee fees in order to drive rates lower.
Which loan products or financing structures do you believe will rise in popularity by 2026, and why?
Banosian: By 2026, affordability and creativity will drive product demand. Buydowns will continue leading the way, especially 2-1 and 1-0 structures, giving buyers early payment relief without hurting seller proceeds. We will also see growth in portfolio and [non-qualified mortgage] products such as [debt service coverage ratio], bank-statement and asset-depletion loans as more borrowers fall outside traditional income documentation. Second-lien and blended-rate options will help homeowners unlock equity without losing their low first mortgage. On the access side, down-payment assistance and multilingual lending platforms will expand reach to first-time and Spanish-speaking buyers.
Tuz: I believe that adjustable-rate mortgages will continue to pick up market share with the yield curve steepening as borrowers continue to look for ways to get a lower rate in the near term. In addition, I believe construction to permanent loans will continue to grow as more borrowers choose to build their home instead of purchasing an existing home.
How do you see the lender-Realtor relationship evolving in 2026 to better serve clients in a competitive market?
Banosian: The most successful lender-Realtor partnerships in 2026 will be data-driven, proactive and co-branded. Agents do not just need a loan officer; they need a business partner who brings tools, insights and solutions that help convert more buyers and move stale listings. That means providing instant buydown analyses, equity alerts, loyalty tracking and property marketing assets automatically and at scale. The traditional referral-for-referral model is being replaced by a shared growth model where both sides win when deals close faster and pipelines stay full. Technology will handle the automation, and human connection will handle the trust.